London’s Airports Split, and Heathrow’s Runway Slips
Heathrow traffic is down and its third runway now targets 2039. Stansted set records. For premium long-haul, expect tight Heathrow capacity and firm fares for a decade.
London’s airports are moving in different directions. At Heathrow, the hub most premium long-haul clients use, traffic is falling and new capacity has moved four years further away. Stansted, the low-cost short-haul airport, has just had the busiest month in its history. For advisors, Heathrow’s scarce slots and firm premium fares will not change soon.
The numbers
- Heathrow: 7.87 million passengers in August 2026, down 2.1% year on year, PA Media reported on 11 September. The busiest day was 2 August, with nearly 272,000 passengers. In June, Heathrow cut its 2026 forecast to 83.6 million passengers, down 1.1%, and said “the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is putting notable downward pressure on traffic,” according to Travelling for Business.
- Gatwick: 19.1 million passengers in the first half of 2026, down 4.7%. Gatwick also blamed the Middle East conflict, while its revenue rose 4.8% to £515.2 million (results of 26 August).
- Stansted: 3.27 million passengers in August, up 6.5% and a record month, with 9.27 million over the summer (up 5.4%) and 30.7 million over the past 12 months. Its busiest route was Istanbul, followed by Dublin and Palma. “Breaking our record for the busiest ever month…shows just how strong demand for travel has been this summer,” said managing director Gareth Powell.
Runways: one cleared, one delayed
Gatwick’s Northern Runway is cleared to proceed after the Court of Appeal rejected all legal challenges in August 2026. Chief executive Pierre-Hugues Schmit said the airport can now “turn our focus from planning to detailed design work and delivery.”
At Heathrow, ITV News reported on 26 September that the airport had told the government its third runway would open in 2039, not the 2035 date then-Chancellor Rachel Reeves set in January 2026. “Our focus has always been to secure planning permission by 2029. Once achieved, the runway will be open within a decade,” Heathrow said. According to Planning Geek, the 2029 consent target is unchanged and parliamentary scrutiny of the draft Heathrow Expansion National Policy Statement runs to 26 November 2026.
For advisors
- Premium long-haul: do not expect Heathrow capacity relief this decade. Book flagship routes, especially business cabins at peak, as early as fares open.
- Middle East connections: Heathrow and Gatwick both blame the conflict for weaker traffic. Re-check Gulf hub itineraries for Asia and Indian Ocean clients, and keep a non-stop alternative ready.
- Short-haul and city breaks: Stansted’s growth and Gatwick’s runway plans add options outside Heathrow. Compare departure airports for European trips.
- Watch: Heathrow’s next monthly traffic figures and the policy statement vote after 26 November.