Destination Intelligence Methodology
The Destination Intelligence map (“Where the market is moving”) is built only from published figures. Every number carries its own source and period, and nothing is estimated or modelled. Where a reliable published figure doesn’t exist, the map shows a dash.
The four measures
- Visitor arrivals: international arrivals, percentage change on the same period last year, from national tourism or statistics offices. Where an office publishes monthly figures, the last twelve months drive the month scrubber.
- Air seats: scheduled airline seat capacity, percentage change year on year, mostly from OAG’s published monthly data.
- Room pipeline: hotel rooms under construction or planned, from Lodging Econometrics’ published quarterly reports.
- Luxury openings: luxury hotels opening in the next twelve months that Not An Atlas has reported in Hotel Watch.
The Movement score is the average of whichever measures a destination has, each scaled 0–100 against the other destinations on the map. It is a way to compare momentum, not a forecast. Periods differ by source (a year-to-date figure in one country, a single month in another), so read each figure with its period.
Every figure and its source
| Destination | Arrivals | Air seats | Room pipeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antarctica | -4.2% IAATO · 2025–26 season (112,412 vessel passengers) |
— | — |
| Argentina | +7.7% INDEC · Jan–Aug 2026 (non-resident tourists, all routes) |
+15.5% OAG · Sep 2026 (total seats) |
— |
| Brazil | +0.0% Embratur/Polícia Federal · Aug 2026 (month; 576,276 vs 576,049) |
+5.3% OAG · Sep 2026 (total seats) |
20,181 rooms Lodging Econometrics · Q2 2026 (140 projects) |
| Canada | — | — | 47,874 rooms Lodging Econometrics · Q2 2026 (345 projects, record high) |
| China | +20.4% National Immigration Administration · H1 2026 (foreign arrivals) |
+7.6% OAG · Sep 2026 (international seats) |
632,256 rooms Lodging Econometrics · Q2 2026 (3,588 projects) |
| Costa Rica | +5.3% ICT · Jan–Aug 2026 (all ports, 2,191,432) |
— | — |
| Dubai | -44.4% Dubai DET · Jan–Aug 2026 (6.97M vs 12.54M) |
-15.2% OAG · Sep 2026 (DXB) |
13,828 rooms Lodging Econometrics · Q2 2026 (Dubai, 60 projects) |
| Egypt | +4.0% Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities · H1 2026 |
+13.4% OAG · Sep 2026 |
35,185 rooms Lodging Econometrics · Q2 2026 (167 projects) |
| Greece | +8.6% Bank of Greece · Jan–Jul 2026 |
+4.9% OAG · Sep 2026 |
— |
| Iceland | -1.0% Isavia (Keflavík foreign departures) · Jan–Aug 2026 |
— | — |
| Italy | — | +9.9% OAG · Sep 2026 |
— |
| Japan | -2.7% JNTO · Jan–Aug 2026 |
— | 31,360 rooms Lodging Econometrics · Q2 2026 (207 projects) |
| Mexico | +4.5% SECTUR/INEGI · Jan–Jul 2026 (international tourists, 28.91M) |
-1.6% OAG · Sep 2026 (total seats) |
33,131 rooms Lodging Econometrics · Q2 2026 (234 projects) |
| Peru | -0.1% MINCETUR · Jan–Jul 2026 (1,956,084) |
— | — |
| Puerto Rico | +9.0% Caribbean Tourism Organization · CY2025 stayover |
— | — |
| South Africa | +12.4% Dept of Tourism (Stats SA data) · Jan–Jul 2026 |
+6.6% OAG · Sep 2026 |
— |
| Spain | +4.6% INE FRONTUR · Jan–Jul 2026 |
+6.4% Turespaña · Oct 2026 scheduled international seats |
— |
| United States | +2.3% NTTO · May 2026 (total non-US-resident arrivals, month) |
-1.0% OAG · Sep 2026 (international seats) |
703,001 rooms Lodging Econometrics · Q2 2026 (5,975 projects) |
| Vietnam | +14.4% NSO Vietnam · Jan–Aug 2026 |
+9.2% OAG · Sep 2026 |
81,848 rooms Lodging Econometrics · Q2 2026 (265 projects) |
Figures as of September 2026. We update arrivals monthly as new data lands and pipelines quarterly. Spot an error? See our corrections policy or write to notanatlas@loveseyland.com.